Sales of smartwatches have to date been limited by their reliance on the smartphone. Apple can’t sell its Watch to Android phone users, even if they use other Apple products such as the iPad or the Mac. Similarly, WearOS smartwatches only work fully when paired to an Android smartphone. Even if the manufacturer supports iPhone pairing, which not all do, then the linked WearOS watch loses many functions on iOS.
And, by making the watch a phone accessory, it has limited the appeal of the smartwatch for those not excited by health and fitness features. Why use a watch for music streaming, or navigation, or contactless payment, etc etc if there has to be a smartphone near at hand? Why should a developer create a standalone watch app if the user must own a smartphone?
With cellular functionality, and on-board watch app stores, there is now little reason for a smartwatch to still require a smartphone in order to operate with all features intact. But modern smartwatches — even cellular ones — are still dependent on a paired smartphone. For Apple Watch, if the paired iPhone is not nearby, then it acts as a remote mini router to forward app notifications to the remote Watch.
There is a precedent for the smartwatch to drop its smartphone dependence. Twenty years ago the PC or Mac was the digital hub to which all other devices connected, including the iPod and early iPhones (which required a computer for first set up). Ten years ago the smartphone replaced the PC as the hub. Now, the cloud has become the hub for digital living and working, with all devices reliant on cloud services for backup, sharing information, and providing a consistent experience.
For the smartwatch to break free of the smartphone, and so increasing the addressable market and improving smartwatch utility for users, several things must happen:
- Cloud synchronization replaces smartphone pairing. Rather than smartphone apps forwarding notifications and information to the watch, the watch must connect directly to the cloud.
- Operators should make cellular support easier. Many operators support the eSIM used on cellular smartwatches, but not all. And, most still price cellular service for a device that uses a tiny fraction of the data a smartphone uses at well above the equivalent smartphone price per gigabyte.
- Greater battery life, to encourage independence. Larger, rugged, outdoor smartwatch designs make it easier to include greater battery capacity in the larger form factor. With more battery capacity, the smartwatch can take on more functions, be used independently for more hours, and yet critically still deliver at least a full day’s typical usage.
- For Apple, health data should shift from iPhone to watch. Today, the iPhone includes a secure enclave in its system on a chip (SoC) that stores health data. While other companies may be content to simply move this personal health data into the cloud like everything else, given Apple’s privacy strategy of keeping sensitive functions on the device, Apple needs to move users’ primary health store onto the wrist where it’s captured.
There are signs Apple is already creating the foundations for an independent Apple Watch, just as it made the iPhone independent of the Mac and PC using iCloud. Apple Watch has had cellular capability since version 3 — even before Apple introduced an always-on display. Family setup allows a parent to give a child an Apple Watch — even if the child does not own an iPhone — and is testing some of the necessary capabilities for an independent Apple Watch that can be used by anyone, without an iPhone.
Once the smartwatch is independent we will likely see some existing smartwatch features take off in usage and new ones arrive. The watch will become the primary Google Pay and Apple Pay device. Authentication will similarly jump from phone to the wrist, whether it’s acting as a two factor device for logging onto apps and websites, or for unlocking home or car smart locks. Bluetooth earphones and headphones will be used more with the Watch too, for communication, and for music streaming — which is why Apple Music already has a full watch app.
The smartphone will not disappear. It will still sell in vast volumes and be used by almost everyone. But it will no longer be such a central device for the digital life. We will move to a multipolar device world, where users will switch the combinations of devices they use depending on their situation and needs at a given moment in time. Smartglasses, headsets, earphones, tablets, smartwatches, computers and smart home devices will all be used together in various combinations.
And, shifting more functions away from the smartphone, will also build foundations now for a post-smartphone future, for a time when the technology is ready for smartglasses to become viable mass market devices.
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